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Why Use Models to Simulate the Flu?
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Preparedness is essential in order for communities to estimate the potential impact of disease
outbreaks, predict the resources needed for effective response and facilitate rapid interventions
to minimize morbidity and mortality within the population. One of the most effective and cost-saving ways to prepare for an outbreak of a potentially devistating disease such as influenza, is
to utilize predictive mathematical models to simulate the outbreak and exercise potential responses.
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While various theoretical mathematical models of the transmission of influenza within human
populations have been published in peer-reviewed literature, there is a real scarcity of numerical
applications which allow non-mathematicians to simulate an influenza outbreak and evaluate
appropriate intervention scenarios. And those applications which are readily available have been
implemented as protected Microsoft Excel workbooks in which there is no dynamic transmission and
many of the pertinent parameters, including the structure of the population beyond age-groups, are
obscured from the user and are non-editable. Within these spreadsheet applications, navigation
between output screens is difficult and confusing, as is returning to the worksheets where the few
user-defined parameters can be altered.
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Why FluImpact?
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FluImpact is intended to respond to the two main issues defined by the predictive influenza
models described above -- quality and accessibility. The calculations performed by FluImpact are
driven by a sophisticated and innovative system of mathematical equations based on the most
up-to-date research in influenza transmission and prevention and predictive epidemiology, and the
resulting model is packaged in a user-friendly graphical user interface intended to be utilized by
individuals and organizations involved in decision-making and public health preparedness.
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| Download FluImpact 15-day Trial Now! |
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| Download FluImpact 15-day Trial Now! |
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FluImpact is easy to download and install on any desktop or laptop computer.
If your computer is running Microsoft Windows, you can download, install and run FluImpact today,
and you don't need to have any other software installed to run it.
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FluImpact is fast and user-friendly.
FluImpact's graphical user interface makes it easy for the user to navigate between editing
disease and population parameters, and viewing and exporting results. Changes can be made on-the-fly
and results can be viewed immediately, all on your own computer and without requiring the help of
super-computer programs run by National Labs.
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FluImpact sessions are portable.
Sessions created within FluImpact can be shared easily with other FluImpact users by simply saving
and emailing ".flu" files back and forth. Your colleagues don't have to go through the trouble of
re-entering all your parameters to view your results -- they simply open your ".flu" file and can
immediately see what you need them to.
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All FluImpact results are exportable.
Unlike protected spreadsheet applications, FluImpact allows you to export and view all the data
behind every graph produced by the application, whether it's time-series or bar charts. The data
is exported in tab-delimited format, and is compatible with a wide variety of text-editors,
spreadsheet and database programs, and word processors.
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With FluImpact you can customize disease parameters.
FluImpact's friendly graphical user interface lets the user see what parameters are defining their
influenza simulation, and customize the values at will. This transparency makes sure the user is
aware of all the assumptions driving the simulation, and the flexibility allows for the exploration
of "what-if" scenarios, including mutated and newly emerging viruses.
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FluImpact accounts for dynamic disease transmission.
While it may be simpler to quantify the number of people who will get sick with the flu by just
looking at the Gross Attack Rate, this doesn't account for the way people really interact with
each other. By following the movement of influenza back and forth between susceptible and infected
individuals, FluImpact provides a more realistic view of how the disease will impact the population.
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FluImpact accomodates highly structured populations.
When evaluating the impact of influenza, it is important to recognize that populations are defined
by more than just age structure. FluImpact allows the user to describe their populations based on
groups and sub-populations -- and these classifications can be defined however you like, be it age
groups, geographic locality, employment status or any other demographic definition. Each sub-population
can have different contact rates, disease parameters, vaccination coverage and vaccine efficacy.
This allows the user to explore vaccination priority groups, social distancing and quarantine, and
how these interventions will impact the course of the epidemic within sub-populations, groups and
the population as a whole.
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FluImpact accounts for the impact of vaccination.
FluImpact does much more than simply count the number of vaccine doses you need to cover your population --
though it does calculate that value as well. Within FluImpact, individuals within sub-populations
are able to receive prophylactic vaccination to protect them against influenza, based on the 1st
and 2nd dose coverage rates defined by the user in the scenario parameters. FluImpact’s model
assumes that two doses of vaccine, spaced a month apart, are necessary to provide the maximum
protection against infection, as defined by the vaccine efficacy inputted by the user, and that
partial protection is offered by receiving just a single dose. Since it is assumed that vaccinations
are not able to be delivered instantaneously to the entire population, and that public demand for
vaccination may change over time for the duration of the flu season, vaccination uptake is modeled
within FluImpact as a function of time. As individuals get vaccinated they receive full or partial protection from
being infected with influenza, which results in potentially fewer individuals getting sick -- and
thus fewer sick people able to infect others.
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FluImpact users can input and compare multiple influenza scenarios side-by-side.
Instead of laboriously inputting data and trying to remember output between one run and another,
FluImpact allows the user to run up to nine outbreak scenarios simultaneously and view them all on
the same graph for side-by-side comparison. This makes it easier to see the reduction in cases
and deaths when vaccination coverage is increased or contact rates are decreased, for example, or
to evaluate what might happen if death rates were higher in one demographic than another. The
benefits are endless!
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When it comes to using the power of mathematical simulation to prepare for and exercise influenza
outbreaks, there just isn't an application available that's better quality, easier to use or more
accessible than FluImpact.
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| Download FluImpact Today! |
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